Will Officials In Ukraine And Russian Federation Derail Trump-Putin Summit II In Hungary? If So, Turkiye Could Benefit. Elasticity Theory Continues To Be An Outcome Determinant
Will Officials In Ukraine And Russian Federation Derail Trump-Putin Summit II In Hungary?
If So, Turkiye Could Benefit
Elasticity Theory Continues To Be An Outcome Determinant
There are officials in the Zelensky Administration and in the Putin Administration embracing subtly a strategy embraced publicly by members of the Netanyahu Administration- scuttle an initiative of the Trump-Vance Administration (2025-2029).
This from three individuals who work within the Presidential Office Building in the city of Kyiv, Ukraine, where Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine (2019-2024; term extended due to imposition of martial law in 2022), has his office and two individuals who work within the Moscow Kremlin in the city of Moscow, Russian Federation, where Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation (2000-2008 and 2012-2030), has his office.
The goals emanating from Kyiv and Moscow are the same: cancel, delay, postpone Trump-Putin Summit II. Their reasons intersect in believing any outcome(s) from Trump-Putin Summit II will be detrimental to respective strategic interests.
For Kyiv, a premature forced ending to the military component of the Russian Federation-Ukraine War. For Moscow, a premature forced ending to the military component of the Russian Federation-Ukraine War. However, both countries continue to be drained commercially, economically, financially, militarily, and politically. Taxpayers, voters, and third parties are tiring from supporting a war where the respective governments seem to want to continue despite costs. There remain constituencies in each capital who believe in benefits from picking a fight and making it look like the other started it.
Elasticity Theory continues as a determinant for the outcome of the Russian Federation-Ukraine War. One government targets civilians to achieve its goals. One government won’t. That disparity drives an imbalance. The government with greater flexibility to achieve its goals is expected to prevail.
Donald Trump, President of the United States (2017-2021 and 2025-2029), last week confirmed Trump-Putin Summit II scheduled within the next two weeks in Budapest, Hungary, with President Putin.
President Trump confirmed that Marco Rubio, United States Secretary of State (2025- ), and Sergey Lavrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation (2004- ), would meet this week to discuss planning for Trump-Putin Summit II.
“Marco Rubio is going to be meeting with his counterpart, as you know, (Russian Foreign Minister Sergey) Lavrov, and they’ll be meeting pretty soon. They’re going to set up a time and a place, very shortly, maybe it’s already set up. They’ve already spoken.” President Trump
Since then, there are reports Messrs. Rubio and Lavrov will engage by telephone rather than in person.
Officials in the Putin Administration have shared there are issues to be addressed prior to a president-to-president meeting.
Unclear if the scuttling strategies deployed in Kyiv and Moscow have reached directly head of state and head of government levels within the twenty-seven (27) member countries of the Brussels, Belgium-based European Union (EU) or have reached cabinet and sub-cabinet levels.
EU: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.
The effort from Kyiv focuses upon seeking support from governments in countries who will need to authorize the Il-96-300PU aircraft transporting President Putin to travel through their airspace to deny that authorization. Or, if providing authorization convey to President Putin there is no guarantee for the safety of his aircraft while within the specific airspace.
The goal from Kyiv is to prevent President Putin from traveling to Hungary- which from the perspective of the Zelensky Administration will benefit Viktor Orban, Prime Minister of Hungary (1998-2002 and 2010- ), who they want defeated in April 2026 elections, and optically represent a weakening of resolve by countries to isolate the government of the Russian Federation.
Hungary is a member of the EU and is a member of the thirty-two (32) country Brussels, Belgium-based North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
NATO: United States, United Kingdom, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Albania, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia, Romania, Germany, Slovakia, Greece, Slovenia, Hungary, Spain, Turkiye, Latvia, and North Macedonia, Sweden.
If the effort to scuttle Trump-Putin Summit II in Hungary is successful, the default location would likely be Turkiye. This would benefit Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of the Republic of Turkiye (2014- ), whom President Trump has publicly embraced as essential to resolving the Russian Federation-Ukraine War.
In the capital Ankara the venue could be within the seventy-four-acre Presidential Complex. In the largest city, Istanbul the venue could be within the Dolmabahçe Palace, Vahdettin Pavilion, or Büyük Mabeyn Köşkü at Yıldız Palace.
In Hungary, the government will be stressed to prohibit, contain, and control demonstrations focusing upon the presence of President Putin in Budapest, demonstrations supporting Ukraine, and demonstrations opposing President Trump. The government of Turkiye have more control.
While Turkiye is a member of NATO, President Putin would not need to travel through the airspace of EU-member countries, countries seeking EU membership, or other NATO-member countries. A faster route. A safer route. A less politically problematic route.
For President Putin to reach Hungary, he will need traverse the airspace of countries who are members of the EU, who are members of NATO, countries who want to be members of the EU and/or NATO, and countries who are signers of the 1998 Rome Statute of the ICC.
For President Putin, avoiding travel-related issues and host-related domestics political issues from a 17 March 2023 warrant for his arrest issued by The Hague, Netherlands-based International Criminal Court (ICC). Hungary is a signer of the 1998 Rome Statute of the ICC which created the ICC. The government of Hungary has withdrawn effective 2026.
Candidate countries for EU membership: Albania (2014), Bosnia and Herzegovina (2022), Georgia (2023), Moldova (2022), Montenegro (2010), North Macedonia (2005), Serbia (2012), Turkiye 1999), Ukraine (2022). Kosovo submitted an application for membership in 2022.
For some heads of state and heads of government of those fly-over countries, they will look to the sky and be angry about the inability to force the Il-96-300PU aircraft carrying President Putin to land on their territory so he may be arrested.
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission (2019-2029), will find painful to digest that Prime Minister Orban, with whom there are EC-related and EU-related governance issues not solely relating to Ukraine, will be the recipient of political largess from President Trump.
The principals of the “coalition of the willing” in support of the government of Ukraine: Emmanuel Macron, President of the Republic of France (2017-2027); Alexander Stubb, President of the Republic of Finland (2024-2030); Friedrich Merz, Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany (2025- ); Giorgia Meloni, Prime Minister of the Republic of Italy (2022- ); Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom (England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland) (2024- ); and Mark Rutte, Secretary-General of NATO (2024- ), again find themselves as bystanders looking from the street through the windows.
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