Why Exaggerate? “Trillions of Dollars are being taken in on tariffs” Is A Lie. Ten Year Projections Misleading. Only Measure Is Four Years Until 2029 When Trump-Vance Administration Concludes
Why Exaggerate?
“Trillions of Dollars are being taken in on tariffs” Is A Lie.
Trump-Vance Administration Tariffs And Their Customs Duty Revenues Projections Are Only Plausibly Reliable For Four Years- If Upheld By The United States Supreme Court And If Not Altered During The Four Years Among Other Unknowns.
Whatever The Outcomes, All Customs Duty Revenues Should Be Used To Reduce The National Debt- Not Spending.
Donald Trump, President of the United States (2017-2021 and 2025-2029) reported customs duty revenue from tariffs implemented by the Trump-Vance Administration (2025-2029) thus far in 2025 have poured “trillions of dollars” into the United States Department of the Treasury.
Howard Lutnick, United States Secretary of Commerce, reported that customs duty revenues from tariffs implemented by the Trump-Vance Administration will deliver US$500 billion annually to the United States Department of the Treasury.
Scott Bessent, United States Secretary of the Treasury, reported that customs duty revenue from tariffs implemented by the Trump-Vance Administration will deliver approximately US$300 billion in calendar year 2025. He later amended the statement to project customs duty revenue would be more than US$500 billion- and near US$1 trillion by the end of 2025 and the same amount annually during the Trump-Vance Administration.
“We had a substantial jump from July to August, and I think we're going to see a bigger jump from August to September. So, I think we could be on our way well over half a trillion, maybe towards a trillion-dollar number. This administration, your administration, has made a meaningful dent in the budget deficit.”
In August 2025, customs duty revenues from tariffs were approximately US$31 billion. Customs duty revenue from tariffs from April 2025 to June 2025 was approximately US$64 billion. Total customs duty revenue from tariffs during the first seven months of the Trump-Vance Administration was approximately US$158 billion- representing more than 2.5 times the customs duty revenue tariffs during the same period in 2025.
Secretary Lutnick and Bessent have been in their positions for less than eight (8) months. The Trump-Vance Administration commenced at 12:00 pm on 20 January 2025 and will conclude at 12:00 pm on 20 January 2029.
The Washington DC-based Tax Foundation projected Trump-Vance Administration custom duty revenue from tariffs would total approximately US$2.5 trillion for the period 2025 to 2035- if they remain implemented by successor administrations and all economic conditions, macro and micro, remain consistent.
That projection would mean approximately US$250 billion annually with the only realistic projection for the calendar years 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028. The total would be a cumulative US$1 trillion as the Trump-Vance Administration concludes on 20 January 2029.
The tariffs introduced by the Trump-Vance Administration are implemented through provisions of the United States Constitution and United States statutes. Nothing is then certain after 12:00 pm on 20 January 2029.
The White House
Washington DC
22 August 2025
ICYMI: Tariffs Will Reduce Deficit by $4 Trillion
President Donald J. Trump’s tariffs will reduce total deficits by $4 trillion over the next decade, according to a new analysis from the Congressional Budget Office. From The Washington Examiner: “The Congressional Budget Office projected that President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda, if maintained, would decrease total deficits by up to $4 trillion over the next decade. The CBO, Congress’s nonpartisan scorekeeper, released the updated projections on Friday. The CBO found that the effective tariff rate for goods imported into the United States has increased by a notable 18 percentage points from last year. If the stance is maintained for the next 10 years, primary deficits would fall by $3.3 trillion, the CBO said. The tariff revenue would also minimize the need for federal borrowing, and would result in $700 billion less spending on interest, driving total deficits down by $4 trillion.”
