Trump Absence At G20 Leaders’ Summit Shows “Out Of Sight Does Not Mean Out Of Mind”. South Africa Disrespected By Five G20 Heads Of State And Two BRICS Members. Opportunities For Erdogan And Modi.
The Fifteen Head Of State/Head Of Government Attendees At The G20 Leaders’ Summit In South Africa Should Exploit The More Intimate Opportunity
The 13th century phrase “out of sight, out of mind” continues its relevance five hundred years later at the 2025 G20 Leaders’ Summit in in the city of Johannesburg on 22 November 2025 and 23 November 2025.
In its 21st century incarnation, out of sight does not mean out of mind. The focus this weekend remains upon those absent rather than those present.
A disservice to the 2025 G20 Leaders’ Summit is the Trump-affect and Trump-effect. A shift from discussing what is, what could be, what will be, and what can be done- even when the world pays attention for only forty-eight hours, to stark imagery and focus upon another gathering- in 2026.
The gathering in South Africa is relevant. Those attending are relevant. The issues to be discussed are relevant.
President Trump And Four Heads Of State Not Attending 2025 G20 Leaders’ Summit
One Head Of State And One Head Of Government Likely To Use Smaller Forum In Johannesburg To Their Advantage: Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of the Republic of Turkiye (2014-2028), and Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India (2014- )
No United States At 2025 G20 Leaders’ Summit, Then Invite 21st Largest Country By GDP- Switzerland
President Trump Should Not Pick A Fight With The Make-Up Of G20, But He Should With G7
Will Any Head Of State Or Head Of Government Dare Not Attend? Whomever Does Not Attend The 2026 G20 Leaders’ Summit At Trump National Doral Miami Golf Resort Should Prepare For An Unrelenting Verbal Assault And Potential Sanctions, Tariffs, And Visa Restrictions
In diplomatic jargon, the government of the Republic of South Africa, host of the 2025 G20 Leaders’ Summit, has been unfairly and multilaterally screwed.
First, the absentees. Javier Milei, President of Argentina, will not attend- he recently received US$20 billion in United States taxpayer funds to assist with winning an election, which he did; so no reason to displease his exchequer in Washington DC by participating in a gathering hosted by a “white-hating government.” Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China, will not attend. Claudia Sheinbaum, President of Mexico, will not attend. Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation, will not attend and he is sending a deputy chief of staff which is quite a protocol sting for the government of South Africa. Donald Trump, President of the United States, will not attend. He had confirmed in his place J.D. Vance, Vice President of the United States; he cancelled too along with the entire official delegation of the United States.
Group of 20 (G20): Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkiye, United Kingdom, United States, European Union representing twenty-seven (27) member states, and African Union (since 2023) representing fifty-five (55) member states.
There will be approximately sixty-five delegations including those from eighteen member countries. Increasingly controversial will be representatives from the European Union and European Council, representatives from the African Union whose participation become permanent in 2023. The host nation, as their prerogative, has invited fifteen guest countries along with representatives of regional economic alliances, groups, and organizations, including the European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund, United Nations, and World Bank.
“I'm not going to represent our country there… Total disgrace (the 2025 G20 Leaders’ Summit is to be in South Africa)… We have a G-20 meeting in South Africa. South Africa shouldn’t even be in the G’s anymore, because what’s happened there is bad… Afrikaners (descendants of Dutch settlers, and French and German immigrants) are being killed and slaughtered, and their land and farms are being illegally confiscated…. No U.S. Government Official will attend as long as these Human Rights abuses continue. I look forward to hosting the 2026 G20 in Miami, Florida!... We’re supposed to have a, I guess a G20 meeting there … I don’t know how we can go unless that situation is taken care of. But it’s a genocide that’s taking place that you people don’t want to write about. But it’s a terrible thing that’s taking place. And farmers are being killed. They happen to be white.” Donald Trump, President of the United States
“[W]ill NOT attend the G20 summit in Johannesburg. South Africa is doing very bad things. Expropriating private property. Using G20 to promote ‘solidarity, equality, & sustainability.’ In other words: DEI and climate change. My job is to advance America’s national interests, not waste taxpayer money or coddle anti-Americanism.” Marco Rubio, United States Secretary of State
“What’s happening in South Africa fits the textbook definition of why the refugee program was created… race-based persecution.” Stephen Miller, Deputy Chief of Staff, The White House
While grotesque to bury the G20 Leaders’ Summit prior to it having commenced, there is a reality.
What is singularly orbiting like a political satellite is the knowledge for each head of state and head of government, those participating and those unwilling to make the journey, is they will be expected to participate in the 2026 G20 Leaders’ Summit. No excuses. No late arrivals. No early departures. Bring golf clubs. And as children would attend a birthday party, bring tributes- the financial guide for which is the retail value of a Boeing 747-800 aircraft presented to President Trump earlier in 2025 by the government of the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
The participants at the 2025 G20 Leaders’ Summit know President Trump has shared there will be fewer non-country participants at the 2026 G20 Leaders’ Summit- so for some in Johannesburg, they may be absent in 2026. He has mused about extending invitations to President Xi Jinping and President Putin, perhaps forgetting China and Russia are members of the G20 as the G20 is defined solely by the size of a country Gross Domestic Product (GDP) while the G7 is defined by GDP and type of governance.
Group of 7 (G7) (in order of 2024 GDP): (2014-Present) includes United States, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Italy, Canada, and European Union representing twenty-seven member states. The Russian Federation (which in 2024 ranks after Canada) was excluded in 2014 due to its military actions on the Crimean Peninsula in Ukraine.
President Trump has mused about removing South Africa from the G20 and not including South Africa at the 2026 G20 Leaders’ Summit due to what the Trump-Vance Administration (2025-2029) perceives as affronts, infractions, opposition, slights, and a 21st century apartheid defined as black people suppressing white people.
Which could logically lead to a discussion about the appropriateness of including the Russian Federation due to its military engagement in Ukraine and China due to its commercial, economic, financial, military, and political behavior. The government of Spain’s perennial invitation may be in jeopardy due to political leadership’s refusal to commit to 5% of GDP for military spending. And, in what could be a consequential snub- with Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada, and President Sheinbaum preparing to renegotiate the 2020 United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) due to a provision for review and adjustment in 2026. If the negotiations are not to President Trump’s liking, Canada, Mexico, or both could self-exclude or excluded from the 2026 G20 Leaders’ Summit.
NOTE: Emmanuel Macron, President of France, is reportedly considering inviting President Xi Jinping to the 2026 G7 Leaders’ Summit, which he will host in June 2026 for the final time during his final term in office. If extended and accepted, President Macron would be the head of state who demonstrably recognized the increasing irrelevancy of the G7. Look for President Trump to then invite President Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, and demanding that G7 become permanently the G9.
Soon after the conclusion of the 2025 G20 Leaders’ Summit, President Trump will begin to present that the 2026 G20 Leaders’ Summit will be the “hottest ticket in town” and that “everyone’s begging to be invited” and “some won’t make the cut” and plant the political seeds for, as host, inviting his “friends” including heads of state and heads of government from Hungary, Slovakia, Syria, UAE, Qatar, Serbia, Romania, Albania, and Vietnam. Some of the countries are the locations for commercial interests involving New York, New York-based The Trump Organization.
Lastly, from December 2025 when the United States accepts control of the G20 for 2026, every head of state and head of government will be jockeying to be among those who will occupy the coveted accommodations at the 643-room (and two presidential suites) Trump National Doral Miami Golf Resort. Who must stay at a hotel will reflect their standing and status- as President Trump defines both. If President Xi Jinping attends, likely he will occupy one of the presidential suites.
“I think that everybody wants it here because it’s right next to the airport. It’s the best location. It’s beautiful everything. We will not make any money on it. I think it’ll be really a beautiful thing. And Doral’s been very, very successful. One of the most successful properties in the country.” Donald Trump, President of the United States
No one, including President Trump, believes his company will not “make money on it” as impossible to determine product and service cost relating to gross profit and net profit. And how about the publicity value? How does that “not make money” as the Trump brand will be featured throughout the world. The Trump Organization will certainly not permit an independent audit to determine the veracity of the statement by President Trump. In 2020, President Trump wanted to have the G7 Leaders’ Summit at Trump National Doral Maimi Golf Resort. There was criticism as to self-dealing and changed the location to the presidential retreat Camp David located in Maryland’s Catoctin Mountain Park.
Second, alliance snubs. Not only are five heads of state not participating- representing twenty percent (20%) of G20 country members, but also absent will be two core members of the BRICS alliance- Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China, and South Africa.
BRICS: Argentina, Brazil, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Iran, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, United Arab Emirates.
25% of BRICS members in G20. All five members of BRICS are members of the twenty-member G20. NOTE: As of January 2024, Saudi Arabia will be a member of BRICS, so there will be six members of the then twelve-member BRICS who are also members of the G20. As of January 2024, 30% of BRICS members will be in the G20.
Looking at membership of the G7, six of the seven will be represented at the 2025 G20 Leaders’ Summit.
Group of 7 (G7) (in order of 2024 GDP): (2014-Present) includes United States, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Italy, Canada, and European Union representing twenty-seven member states. The Russian Federation (which in 2024 ranks after Canada) was excluded in 2014 due to its military actions on the Crimean Peninsula in Ukraine.
The G20 is in reality the G19 as the twenty-seven member countries of the European Union (EU) will as tradition be represented by Ursula von der Leyen, current President (2019-2029) of the Brussels, Belgium-based European Commission (EC), the executive body for the EU. Also participating is Antonio Costa, current President of the Brussels, Belgium-based European Council (EC) representing heads of state/heads of government of EU member countries and “defines the general political direction and priorities of the European Union.” And then there is the fifty-five-member state African Union added in 2023.
European Union (EU): Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.
There remains robust debate, particularly within the Trump-Vance Administration (2025-2029) that unfair to member countries outside of the EU to have a representative of the EU/EC at both the G7 table and G20 table. Germany, France, and Italy are members of the EU, so what is the fairness to have them represented twice?
15% (or 20%) of EU members in G20. Three members of the twenty-seven-member EU are members of the twenty-member G20. NOTE: Including Spain, which is a “permanent guest” at G20 Leaders’ Summits, there would be 20% of EU members represented in the G20.
35% of NATO members in G20. Seven members of thirty-one-member NATO are members of the twenty-member G20. Twenty-three country members of the EU are members of NATO.
NATO: United States, United Kingdom, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Albania, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia, Romania, Germany, Slovakia, Greece, Slovenia, Hungary, Spain, Turkiye, Latvia, and North Macedonia, Sweden.
There Continues To Be Cross-Nation Pollination By Governments Into New Alliances And Refurbished Alliances.
Nineteen heads of state, heads of government, monarchs, premiers, and ministers will attend. Each representing themselves, but increasingly also carrying the membership cards of commercial, economic, financial, ideological, military, and political alliances to which they belong with the most notable being APEC, BRICS, EU, Global South, G7, G20, OAS, OPEC, NATO, and SCO.
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO): China, Russia, Belarus, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan.
Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC): Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Republic of Korea, Chinese Taipei (Taiwan), Thailand, United States, Vietnam.
Global South: Is a “socioeconomic, geopolitical, and historical concept, not a purely geographical one,” that broadly includes countries in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean. The British International Studies Association uses data from the United Nations’ Finance Center for South-South Cooperation to compile its list of 132 countries identified as Global South. Some of the self-identified countries are Argentina, Brazil, China, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Fiji, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, and Solomon Islands.
Organization of American States (OAS): Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Barbados, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Grenada, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, The Bahamas, Trinidad and Tobago, United States, Uruguay and Venezuela.
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC): Algeria, Angola, Congo, Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. OPEC Observers: Egypt, Mexico, Norway, Oman, and Russia among other countries.
