For EU, Putin-Zelensky And Putin-Trump-Zelensky Meeting Have Overflight Problem. Political Migraine For EU Leaders- Looking Skyward And Being Impotent To Make An Arrest. Turkiye Remains Likely.
Putin-Zelensky And Putin-Trump-Zelensky Meeting Has Political Eyes Teeing-Up UNGA Speeches In September
Location For Putin-Zelensky And Putin-Trump-Zelensky Meeting Problematic For Twelve EU Governments
Waivers Required For Russian Federation Individuals, Aircraft, Vehicles, And Assets From Seizure While In EU Territory
Overflight Authorizations Will Cause EU-Wide Demonstrations
Possible EU-Wide Air Space Closure- Trying To Prevent Rogue Or Unauthorized Missile Attack On Russian Federation Government Aircraft
Multiple Governments Ignoring ICC Warrant For President Putin Will Weaken ICC
Political Headache For EU And NATO Country Leaders- Think Worst Passages From The Bible, Koran, Torah
Turkiye Remains The Most Efficient Location
Given Complexities, Don’t Dismiss Putin-Trump-Zelensky Meeting Before A Putin-Zelensky Meeting
On Tuesday, 23 September 2025, from 9:15 am to 2:45 pm the first of thirty-six heads of state that day will deliver scheduled fifteen-minute (ignored by many speakers) remarks to the 193-members participating in the 80th annual United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). Presiding is Antonio Gutierrez, Secretary-General of the United Nations (UN) since 2017, whose second and final term expires in 2026.
The remarks process continues through Monday, 29 September 2025, for heads of state, heads of government, and ministers representing their respective countries/nations/states.
One hundred and twenty-five members of the UN are States Parties to the 17 July 1998 Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC). Thirty-three are African States, nineteen are Asia-Pacific States, twenty are from Eastern Europe, twenty-eight are from Latin American and Caribbean States, and twenty-five are from Western European and other States.
Link: UN Treaty - Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court
Link: States Parties - Chronological Lists
The Trump-Vance Administration (2025-2029) imposed sanctions on two judges and two prosecutors involved in investigations into alleged war crimes committed by the State of Israel and the United States. Four other judges were sanctioned in June 2025 and Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan in February 2025. From the court: “These sanctions are a flagrant attack against the independence of an impartial judicial institution. They constitute also an affront against the Court’s States Parties, the rules-based international order and, above all, millions of innocent victims across the world.”
Donald Trump, President of the United States (2017-2021 and 2025-2029), anticipates a bilateral meeting by Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation (2000-2008 and 2012-2030) and Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine (2019-2024; term extended due to imposition of martial law in 2022) will be prior to his remarks on 23 September 2025. President Trump will immediately follow the remarks by the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, President of Federative Republic of Brazil (2003-2011 and 2023- ).
If the bilateral is held prior to the commencement of the UNGA, expect a Diet-Coke energized President Trump to herald in his UNGA remarks his peacemaking prowess (and thus self-defined odds-on favorite for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize) towards not only the Russian Federation-Ukraine War, but his self-described solidary role in divining peace (and in one instance deterring a nuclear war) among fourteen (14) governments: Armenia and Azerbaijan; Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda; India and Pakistan; Israel and Iran; Cambodia and Thailand; Egypt and Ethiopia; Serbia and Kosovo.
NOTE: Given increasing complexities in arranging a bilateral meeting, there is increasing speculation for first a President Putin-President Trump-President Zelensky meeting before a President Putin-President Zelensky meeting.
Easy to surmise for representatives of UNGA members attending the remarks by President Trump to have a pocket-sized political actuarial table to predict if they will be in office past the terms of President Putin, President Trump, and President Zelensky.
The location for the President Putin-President Zelensky meeting continues to be subject of aggravation, anticipation, apprehension, and consternation by the twenty-seven (27) member countries of the Brussels, Belgium-based European Union (EU) and thirty-two (32) member countries of the Brussels, Belgium-based North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
All members of the EU are signers of the Rome Statute of the ICC. The government of Hungary has withdrawn effective 2026. One member of NATO, the Republic of Turkiye, is not a signer of the Rome Statute of the ICC. Switzerland is neither a member of the EU nor NATO, but is a signer of the Rome Statute of the ICC.
The Clinton-Gore Administration (1993-2001) signed but did not ratify the Rome Statute which established the ICC. The Bush-Cheney Administration (2001-2009) “unsigned” the Rome Statute in 2002.
EU: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.
NATO: United States, United Kingdom, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Albania, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia, Romania, Germany, Slovakia, Greece, Slovenia, Hungary, Spain, Turkiye, Latvia, and North Macedonia, Sweden.
The Trump-Vance Administration, Putin Administration, Zelensky Administration, Macron Administration, and Keller-Sutter Administration suggest Austria, Hungary, Switzerland, Turkiye, and United Arab Emirates (UAE) as potential host countries for a President Putin-President Zelensky meeting. There are logistical issues with three of the five.
President Putin and all EU-sanctioned individuals traveling with him would require temporary immunity from detention, arrest, extradition, and prosecution by the ICC.
President Putin’s aircraft and the aircraft transporting his team and his vehicles would require clearance to land at the agreed upon airport and temporary immunity from asset seizure while those assets are in EU and NATO territory.
President Putin’s aircraft would require authorization to travel through the airspace of potentially twelve (12) EU members- where all are signers of the document creating The Hague, Netherlands-based ICC which:
“Today, 17 March 2023, Pre-Trial Chamber II of the International Criminal Court (“ICC” or “the Court”) issued warrants of arrest for two individuals in the context of the situation in Ukraine: Mr Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Ms Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova.
Mr Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, born on 7 October 1952, President of the Russian Federation, is allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation (under articles 8(2)(a)(vii) and 8(2)(b)(viii) of the Rome Statute). The crimes were allegedly committed in Ukrainian occupied territory at least from 24 February 2022. There are reasonable grounds to believe that Mr Putin bears individual criminal responsibility for the aforementioned crimes, (i) for having committed the acts directly, jointly with others and/or through others (article 25(3)(a) of the Rome Statute), and (ii) for his failure to exercise control properly over civilian and military subordinates who committed the acts, or allowed for their commission, and who were under his effective authority and control, pursuant to superior responsibility (article 28(b) of the Rome Statute).
Ms Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova, born on 25 October 1984, Commissioner for Children’s Rights in the Office of the President of the Russian Federation, is allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation (under articles 8(2)(a)(vii) and 8(2)(b)(viii) of the Rome Statute). The crimes were allegedly committed in Ukrainian occupied territory at least from 24 February 2022. There are reasonable grounds to believe that Ms Lvova-Belova bears individual criminal responsibility for the aforementioned crimes, for having committed the acts directly, jointly with others and/or through others (article 25(3)(a) of the Rome Statute).
Pre-Trial Chamber II considered, based on the Prosecution’s applications of 22 February 2023, that there are reasonable grounds to believe that each suspect bears responsibility for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population and that of unlawful transfer of population from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation, in prejudice of Ukrainian children.
The Chamber considered that the warrants are secret in order to protect victims and witnesses and also to safeguard the investigation. Nevertheless, mindful that the conduct addressed in the present situation is allegedly ongoing, and that the public awareness of the warrants may contribute to the prevention of the further commission of crimes, the Chamber considered that it is in the interests of justice to authorise the Registry to publicly disclose the existence of the warrants, the name of the suspects, the crimes for which the warrants are issued, and the modes of liability as established by the Chamber.
The abovementioned warrants of arrests were issued pursuant to the applications submitted by the Prosecution on 22 February 2023.”
Political headache- think the worst moments from the Bible (Old Testament and New Testament), Koran, or Torah for heads of state and heads of government looking skyward to see the contrails of President Putin’s aircraft and having no power whatsoever to do anything about it. Airspace throughout the EU would need temporary closures for the arrival and the departure. Tempting target for a rogue or implicitly-approved targeting by a surface-to-air missile.
Pity the politicians in the impacted countries further if an election is near. Even absent an election, there will be large demonstrations in each of the countries authorizing the overflight(s) as well as the hosting country. Security costs will be in the tens of millions of Euros. The demonstrators will have a singular message- with EU members taxpayers and NATO member taxpayers committing long term and spending since 24 February 2022 approximately, according to President Trump, US$350 billion (and separately US$306 billion committed by the government of the United Kingdom) to end a war, why has their government permitted the perpetrator to roam freely? What good is the ICC if governments ignore its findings?
The government of Ukraine, while wanting to end the war, will also find entirely challenging to digest that President Putin will escape ICC jurisdiction. The government of Ukraine will quietly endorse demonstrations against temporary immunity for President Putin while publicly agreeing to abide by it.
Likely some governments will refuse to permit the use of their airspace by President Putin. At some point, there will be pressure for them to align with the interests of the perceived greater good- to end the war. The government of Ukraine may permit President Putin to use its airspace, but only with reciprocal use of Ukrainian airspace by President Zelensky.
With a temporary ceasefire likely to be in place while President Putin and President Zelensky meet, upon conclusion of the meeting- absent substantive progress, the armed forces of the Russian Federation may resume operations in Ukraine as soon as President Putin’s aircraft has departed EU member and NATO member airspace. This would result in further demonstrations against EU member governments and NATO member governments.
The Locations
“It will be a neutral country, so perhaps Switzerland, I’m advocating for Geneva or another country. The last time there were bilateral discussions was in Istanbul.” Emmanuel Macron, President of France (2017-2027)
Traveling from the Russian Federation to Austria would include routings using the airspace of Poland and Czechia; Croatia and Slovenia; Romania and Hungary; or Slovenia. Financial institutions in Austria have been criticized by the government of Ukraine for continuing commercial activity within the Russian Federation.
Traveling from the Russian Federation to Hungary would include routings using the airspace of Poland and Slovakia; or Romania. EU and NATO leadership will be challenged to reward the government of Hungary while simultaneously criticizing it for obstructing EU positions relating to Ukraine. A haunting reminder that may want to be avoided: The 1994 Budapest Memorandum where the United States, United Kingdom, and Russian Federation promised to uphold the independence of Ukraine, sovereignty of Ukraine, and respect for the borders of Ukraine in exchange for relinquishing its nuclear weapons.
Traveling from the Russian Federation to Switzerland would include routings using the airspace of Slovenia and Austria; Italy; France; or Germany. In 2024, Switzerland hosted Ukraine Peace Summit- with the government of the Russian Federation excluded. The Trump-Vance Administration has placed high tariffs on the import of many Switzerland-produced products. One aircraft of the government of the Russian Federation, even with overflight authorization from France, required nine hours from Moscow to Switzerland- a route that would normally require three hours.
Which leaves two locations not requiring airspace waivers for President Putin’s aircraft. Turkiye and UAE.
Turkiye has the edge in terms of having hosted Russian Federation-Ukraine bilaterals and United States-Russian Federation bilaterals. Both Ankara (the capital) and Istanbul (the largest city) are efficiently reached from Kyiv and Moscow, and Washington DC.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of the Republic of Turkiye (2014-2028) has led the government of Turkiye and Turkiye-based companies in maintaining substantive commercial, economic, financial, military, political, and societal relationships with the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Its role as guardian and guarantor of the entrance and exit to the Black Sea means a necessarily critical seat at any negotiating table.
President Trump will look at the selected location for the President Putin-President Zelensky meeting and any President Putin-President Trump-President Zelensky meeting as a favor he is providing to a government. As such, he will feel that government has an obligation to him for providing it the “most important meeting in the world” and hundreds of millions of Euros (or Lira) in publicity.
There will be from Washington DC a relatively quiet rejoice that heads of state and heads of government in EU members and NATO members who have been most vociferous about holding accountable President Putin will in some instances host him and in other instances watch him fly over them and unable to do anything about it.
