At ADF In Turkiye, “Political Triage” Additional Theme To “Mapping Tomorrow, Managing Uncertainties”. Festivus Focus Upon Grievances. “I’m Unacceptable? No, You’re Unacceptable”. Prevent Or Treat?
At ADF In Turkiye, “Political Triage” Could Be Additional Theme To “Mapping Tomorrow, Managing Uncertainties”
Festivus Focus Upon Confronting Grievances
“I’m Unacceptable? No, You’re Unacceptable”
Preventing Versus Treating
List Of Consequential Statements From Heads Of State And Heads Of Government
From 17 April 2026 to 19 April 2026, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of the Republic of Turkiye (2014-2028) and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Turkiye will host the annual Antalya Diplomacy Forum (ADF) in the coastal city of Antalya.
From 7 July 2026 to 8 July 2026, President Erdogan and the Ministry of National Defense of the Republic of Turkiye will host the NATO Leaders’ Summit in the capital city of Ankara.
The April 2026 forum is a useful precursor to the July 2026 summit to develop strategies to manage what is shaping into an early Festivus where one of the traditions is the airing of grievances.
Festivus is coming to Beijing in May 2026, to France in June 2026, to Turkiye in July 2026, to New York City in September 2026, and to Doral in December 2026… and there is no stopping it.
Ironically and timely is the theme of this week’s ADF, “Mapping Tomorrow, Managing Uncertainties.”
An unofficial sub-theme among participants this week will be “Political Triage” to discuss how heads of state and heads of government are increasingly unable and unwilling to be agents of prevention rather than accepting roles as political physicians treating after-the-fact their constituents, taxpayers, and voters impacted by decisions those constituents, taxpayers, and voters did not cause, did not endorse, and did not support.
“Triage means sorting and prioritizing people or things based on urgency or need, derived from the French word trier (“to sort”). In healthcare, it’s the process of rapidly assessing patients (often in emergencies or mass casualty events) to determine the severity of their condition and decide who needs immediate treatment to maximize survival, sometimes meaning some receive no care due to limited resources. It’s used to allocate limited resources to those who can benefit most, ensuring “the greatest good for the greatest number.”
For Mapping Tomorrow, an argument can be made that the political clock has only a series of todays because tomorrows never arrive. For many constituents, taxpayers, and voters, the day never ends. Accountability never arrives. It always detours off an exit convenient for politicians- never to be heard from again.
The most consequential mapping question seeking an answer is to the meaning of “international law” in terms of cessation and prevention of conflict- commercial, economic, financial, military, political, and societal.
Until a government accepts the decision of an international body (to which it ascribes or does not ascribe), does not do what it wants to do, stops what it has begun, reverses what it previously did, and paid (financially) for the consequences of its actions, there is no practical meaning of “international law” as a deterrent to any head of state or head of government.
Until a government ceases military conflict because it accepts a decision by others the action is in contradiction to “international law” there is no “international law.”
Heads of state and heads of government increasingly define “international law” as their legions of attorney’s craft an opinion in support of whatever outcome is desired. For example:
The government of Ukraine wants the government of the Russian Federation to pay reparations for damages. The government of the Russian Federation refuses. The government of the Islamic Republic of Iran wants the government of the State of Israel and government of the United States to pay reparations for damages. Both refuse. The Palestinian Authority (along with Muslim-majority countries, including the Republic of Turkiye) wants the government of the State of Israel to pay reparations for damages impacting the territory of Gaza. The government of the State of Israel refuses. The Trump-Vance Administration (2025-2029) supports that decision.
For managing uncertainties, there are an infinite quantity of commercial, economic, financial, military, political, and societal modeling analysis targets. However, there are five (5) comings toward which the ADF can focus. The global landscape is rarely at rest. Today, the global landscape is restless, uncertain, and unsettled. Today, the global landscape is the domain of one head of state and is the purview of one head of state.
The calendar of significance this year is the months of May, June, July, September, and December. Past these months, the focus becomes the totality of days until 12:00 pm on 20 January 2029 with the expiration of the Trump-Vance Administration.
Donald Trump, President of the United States (2017-2021 and 2025-2029), will in May 2026 visit the People’s Republic of China (which he describes as a “monumental event”), will in June 2026 visit the French Republic, will in July 2026 visit the Republic of Turkiye, will in September 2026 visit New York City, and will in December 2026 visit the State of Florida.
President Trump may decide not to participate in the G7 Leaders’ Summit in June 2026 and/or the NATO Leaders’ Summit in July 2026. However, the potential global audience for his listing of grievances- and genuflecting by heads of state and heads of government, may be too tempting to sacrifice.
If the State of Qatar-gifted Boeing 747-800 aircraft has completed its interior retrofit and, particularly important to President Trump, the new exterior paint scheme, he might just want to introduce the 21st century Air Force One in France and Turkiye knowing that its debut will garner an immense amount of media attention.
At the NATO Leaders’ Summit, President Trump will expectedly demand unfettered access to and use of any NATO military installation for any purpose deemed necessary by him. Absent that authorization, he will threaten to eliminate or reduce funding for specific NATO military installations (and civilian headquarters infrastructure in Brussels, Belgium) and reduce personnel at specific NATO military installations. He may also further condition- and not with the ambiguity NATO leadership has desired, what the terms would be for the United States government to render assistance to a member of NATO.
He will address the annual United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York City, New York, in September 2026.
He will host the 2026 G20 Leaders’ Summit in December 2026 at his 643-room (and two presidential suites) Trump National Doral Miami Golf Resortin the State Florida.
There will be one common thread enveloping each location- President Trump will air his grievances- and he has already let it be known that the list is lengthy and it continues to lengthen.
His tone will be relatively soft in Beijing, less so in Évian-les-Bains, and even less so in Ankara. In New York City, the audience might need seat belts and sedatives. In the State of Florida, President Trump will engage in political target practice and use home field advantage to its fullest.
Presidents and prime ministers continue to attest that actions, decisions, or statements thrusted from the signature or voice of President Trump are offensive and/or unacceptable.
Then what? Thus far, nothing. Absent consequences, issuing a statement means “not acceptable” and “unacceptable” are defacto “acceptable” because there are no consequences.
The president of Ukraine threatened the life of the prime minister of Hungary. A representative of the European Commission (EC) responded the statement was “not acceptable” yet there was no consequence to the president of Ukraine. No apology from the president of Ukraine. No demand for an apology from EC leadership or European Union (EU) leadership. Case closed. Score: Acceptable 1, Not Acceptable 0.
For President Trump, condemnation and criticism are added to his list of grievances. He does not cower as a result. He fuels as a result. The longer the list of grievances, the more he believes he is correct and he is prevailing. He prefers to be feared rather than respected. He thrives on being disliked. He exhilarates at being hated.
The commercial, economic, financial, military, political, and societal framing thus far 2026 is defined by three military decisions of choice and one political outcome.
The involuntary extraction on 3 January 2026 from Caracas to New York City, New York, of Nicolas Maduro, President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (2013-2026).
The State of Israel-United States of America joint attack (air) on 28 February 2026 within the Islamic Republic of Iran followed by the State of Israel attack (air and land) within the Lebanese Republic.
The Russian Federation-Ukraine War with roots from 20 February 2014 and accelerating and expanding since 24 February 2022.
On 12 April 2026, Hungary held parliamentary elections and the political party of Viktor Orban, Prime Minister of Hungary (1998-2022 and 2014-2026) who was seeking a fifth four-year term, lost decisively its majority. He is a supporter of President Trump, received President Trump’s “Complete and Total Endorsement for Re-Election as Prime Minister of Hungary,” and supports the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement. Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine (2019-2024; term extended due to imposition of martial law in 2022), did everything he could do prevent that re-election.
The outcome of the first is known. Former president Maduro and his wife (former first lady) reside separately at the Metropolitan Detention Center (MDC) in Brooklyn, New York, while awaiting trial in United States District Court. The success of those extractions has fueled the imagination of President Trump to believe verbal threats followed by the creation of visual threats followed by action is a formula for success not as a one-off, but to be repeated.
President Trump, while fulsomely prepared to accept credit for self-defined success or success as defined by others, is equally prepared to self-absolve from responsibility of failure.
If the on-the-ground landscape in Iran remains in armed conflict, civilian instability, and lack of regime change on 17 June 2026 (G7) or on 7 July 2026 (NATO), heads of state and heads of government will reflect even more carefully than is the norm prior to criticizing President Trump because in response he will threaten retaliation with sanctions, tariffs, and visa restrictions.
“We may hit it [Iran] a few more times just for fun.” Donald Trump, President of the United States
His fellow heads of state and heads of government are appalled by his behavior, character, demeaner, disposition, and swagger, but they are powerless to restrain him.
If the on-the-ground landscape in Iran on 17 June 2026 (G7) or on 7 July 2026 (NATO) is perceived by the international community as successful- the military conflict (“kinetic” is the new catch-phrase among analysts) has ended or is suspended, and even if it is not, President Trump will reiterate that once again Europe and other countries have benefited from actions of the United States- freeloaders he will say.
The White House is suggesting it will send invoices to countries thus far impacted by drones, missiles, and rockets launched from Iran where the United States Department of Defense (War) has used or believes it has used resources to protect them. President Trump is likely to also demand reimbursement from members of the EU and NATO.
President Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of the State of Israel (2022- , 2009-2021, 1996-1999), believe they have done what voices throughout the global political spectrum had since 1979 voiced what should happen- regime change in Iran or change in the behavior of the regime in Iran.
From the perspective of President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu, the military decisions implemented thus far may not be (entirely or at all) consistent with international law. But, they argue, does it matter if the result is what the global political spectrum wanted- whether they voiced it publicly or privately? The ends justify the means. No need for a resolution adopted by the United Nations General Assembly or the United Nations Security Council or the EU or NATO or G7 or G20. President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu would argue international bodies are incapable of holding to account the government of Iran, so extra-judicial decision-making was required for the greater good.
Some EU member and NATO member countries opposed the attack on Iran. Some EU members and NATO members opposed because the process did not use the international legal system to have the imprimatur of international law. Some EU member and NATO member countries privately support, but publicly condemn, disagree, or hesitate to support.
“I was for it before I was against it” and “I was against it before I was for it” is where heads of state and heads of government are in determining their messaging about support for or opposition to the attacks upon Iran by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and United States Department of Defense (War). For decades, there was condemnation of decisions by the government of Iran. For decades, there were sanctions, tariffs, and visa restrictions imposed upon the government of Iran. Today, President Trump will argue, there is accountability for Iran.
President Trump has reiterated the armed forces of the United States will prepare the landscape for the ninety-three million citizens of Iran to then force changes. He has reiterated that if the ninety-three million citizens of Iran do not then use the opportunity provided to force changes, then the result will be on them and not on him. From his perspective, he provided tools, and they would have refused to use them. He is opening the door for regime change; the ninety-three million citizens of Iran need to walk through it. The most important question is not about what happens while the IDF and the United States Department of Defense (War) are actively engaged within the territory of Iran. The most important question is what happens when the military activity ends and civilians attempt to determine what happens next in Iran.
For the Russian Federation-Ukraine War, President Trump maintains what exists today is solely the responsibility of his two predecessors- Obama-Biden Administration (2009-2017) and Biden-Harris Administration (2022-2025).
From his perspective, he is attempting to clean-up the mess they created, he has no obligation to clean-up the mess they created, and whatever effort he is making is doing them a favor- for which they will be ungrateful.
President Trump will never accept that he “lost Ukraine” because the Russian Federation-Ukraine War was never his to lose.
For the Russian Federation-Ukraine War, the Trump-Vance Administration transitioned from United States taxpayers funding to EU country taxpayers funding and NATO country taxpayers funding military equipment purchased for use by the armed forces of Ukraine.
One member of the United States House of Representatives described the military attack on Iran as a Significant Military Operation (SMO), eerily similar to the Special Military Operation (SMO) commenced on 24 February 2022 that was refined as a war on 22 December 2022 by Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation (2000-2008 and 2012-2030).
As long as President Putin refrains from aggressive efforts to seize substantial new real estate within the internationally-recognized territory of Ukraine, for President Trump ownership of the Russian Federation-Ukraine War will remain firmly the fault of his predecessors.
President Trump blames the defeat of Prime Minister Orban on President Zelensky, leadership of the Brussels, Belgium-based twenty-seven-member countries of the European Union (EU), and leadership of the Brussels, Belgium-based thirty-two-member countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
“President Trump is deeply committed to your success, because your success is our success.” Marco Rubio, United States Secretary of State
“Colleagues who have been members of the European Council far longer than I have were deeply angered by what happened today [vote by Prime Minister Orban to prevent financial support to government of Ukraine]. It is a gross act of disloyalty within the European Union. I am firmly convinced that it will leave deep marks.” Friedrich Merz, Chancellor of Germany
“Nobody [Prime Minister Orban] can blackmail the European institutions.” Antonio Costa, President of the European Council
“It was a tough debate, but we stood our ground. We have the right to say 'no' to the Ukrainian war loan. As long as @ZelenskyyUa does not lift the oil blockade, they will not receive any money from Brussels.” Viktor Orban, Prime Minister of Hungary
The critical question for President Trump (and Secretary Rubio) is if the defeat of Prime Minister Orban is a failure for President Trump (and Secretary Rubio)?
For many EU members and NATO members, their worst political nightmare is for the joint United States-Israel attacks upon Iran succeed (as they define success) in regime change- both in leadership and behavior of leadership in advance of the G7 Leaders’ Summit in June 2026 and NATO Leaders’ Summit in July 2026.
One head of state will be carefully digesting the trajectory of events: Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China (2013- ), with whom President Trump will meet on 13 May 2026. That visit was originally scheduled for 31 March 2026. The items on the agenda would have been far fewer in March 2026 than they will be in May 2026. What a difference can forty-three days make for diplomacy
Schedule Of Upcoming Events
The White House confirmed President Trump will visit Beijing, People’s Republic of China, from 13 May 2026 to 15 May 2026. The host is President Xi Jinping who will want to discuss Venezuela and Iran as both countries are (were) sources for oil- from Venezuela as repayment for debt (up to US$20 billion) and from Iran (90% of exports to China; Iran provides 13% of seaborne imports to China).
The G7 Leaders’ Summit is scheduled for 15 June 2026 to 17 June 2026 in Évian-les-Bains, France. The host is Emmanuel Macron, President of the Republic of France (2017-2027). The G7 consists of countries based upon their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the type of political system- defined as democracies. Media reporting that President Macron is considering inviting President Xi Jinping To The G7 Leaders’ Summit. Unknown if President Zelensky will participating.
2026 G7: (2014-Present) United States, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Italy, Canada, and European Commission (president) and European Council (president). The Russian Federation (2025 GDP ranks 8th) was excluded in 2014 due to its military actions (annexation) of the Crimean Peninsula in Ukraine. NOTE: Spain is a “permanent guest” at G7 Leaders’ Summits despite ranking 12th in 2025 GDP.
The NATO Leaders’ Summit is scheduled for 7 July 2026 and 8 July 2026 in Ankara, Turkiye. The host is Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of the Republic of Turkiye (2014-2028). Presiding is Mark Rutte, Secretary-General of NATO (2024- ). The heads of state and heads of government will meet at the Presidential Complex.
NATO: United States, United Kingdom, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Albania, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia, Romania, Germany, Slovakia, Greece, Slovenia, Hungary, Spain, Turkiye, Latvia, and North Macedonia, Sweden.
The annual United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) General Debate (head of state speeches and head of government speeches) is scheduled for 22 September 2026 to 28 September 2026 in New York, New York. Presiding is Antonio Gutierrez, Secretary-General of the United Nations (2017-2026).
The G20 Leaders’ Summit in scheduled for 14 December 2026 and 15 December 2026 December at the 643-room (two presidential suites) Trump National Doral Miami Golf Resort in the State Florida. The host is President Trump. The G20 consists of countries based upon their GDP.
G20: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Poland, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, United Kingdom, United States, European Commission (president) and European Council (president), and African Union (since 2023) representing its fifty-five (55) member states.
The unknown meetings: A bilateral including Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation (2000-2008 and 2012-2030), and President Trump. A trilateral including President Zelensky, President Putin, and President Trump. A bilateral including President Putin and President Zelensky.
Consequential Statements From Heads Of State And Heads Of Government
“The world we live in has turned into a world full of chaos, where the rule of the powerful prevails.” Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of Turkiye
“I’m fed up with the fact that families across the country see their energy bills go up and down, and businesses’ bills fluctuate, because of the actions of Putin or Trump across the world.” Keir Starmer, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom (England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland)
“I find President Trump’s remarks about the Holy Father unacceptable. The Pope is the head of the Catholic Church, and it is right and proper that he call for peace and condemn all forms of war.” Giorgia Meloni, Prime Minister of Italy
“It is she who is unacceptable, because she doesn't care if Iran has a nuclear weapon and would blow up Italy in two minutes if it had the chance. She is no longer the same person, and Italy will not be the same country.” Donald Trump, President of the United States
“Geostrategically, hegemons are increasingly acting without constraint or respect for international norms or laws, while others bear the consequences. Now the extremes of this disruption are being played out in real time in the Middle East.” Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada
“We were not informed in advance, we were not asked to participate. Prima-facie, it appears that these actions are inconsistent with international law… a judgment for others to make. We are actively taking on the world as it is, not passively waiting for a world we wish to be. But we also take this position with some regret because the current conflict is another example of the failure of the international order. Iran's nuclear threat remains and now the United States and Israel have acted without engaging the U.N. or consulting with allies including Canada.” Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada
“outside the scope of international law” Giorgia Meloni, Prime Minister of Italy
“We're not going to be complicit in something that's bad for the world nor contrary to our values and interests simply to avoid reprisals from someone.” Pedro Sanchez, Prime Minister of Spain
“[The war has] not been based on international norms, international law, or the UN Charter.” Fernando Grande-Marlaska Gomez, Minister of Home Affairs of Spain
“no common plan for bringing this war to a swift and convincing conclusion.” Friedrich Merz, Chancellor of Germany
“Spain has been very, very uncooperative. And so has UK. Now the second one is shocking, but this is not the age of Churchill. I will say the UK has been very, very uncooperative with that stupid island that they have, that they gave away and took a 100-year lease, having to do with perhaps indigenous people claiming the island that never even saw the island before. What's that all about? And they ruin relationships. It's a shame. And that country, UK, and I love that country. I love it. My mother was born there. I love it. My mother was born there. My father was born there. He knows all about my father. My father was born there. So, you know, there are places that you sort of automatically feel warmly about. But the UK, what they're doing with energy and what they're doing with immigration is horrible.” Donald Trump, President of the United States
“Not happy with the UK either…this is not Winston Churchill we’re dealing with.” Donald Trump, President of the United States
“I said very clearly in the personal conversation: First, Spain is a member of the European Union, and as such we conduct negotiations on a tariff agreement with the United States only together- or not at all.” Friedrich Merz, Chancellor of Germany
“There is no way to treat Spain particularly badly here. If we reach a result, then we all reach a joint result- and that includes Spain.” Friedrich Merz, Chancellor of Germany
“Our Basic Law permits military deployments only for national defense, alliance defense, or within systems of collective security- and this requires a decision by the German Bundestag… There are currently no requests from either the Americans or the Israelis directed at us.” Friedrich Merz, Chancellor of Germany
“I did this behind closed doors because I did not want to conduct or escalate the conflict publicly.” Friedrich Merz, Chancellor of Germany
“We are not prepared to accept an agreement negotiated over our heads… Only if Washington increases the pressure on Russia will President Putin be ready to make concessions… There will be no agreement without the participation of the Europeans… I leave Washington with the strong impression that the U.S. administration clearly understands what is at stake in Ukraine, and that this country cannot make further territorial concessions beyond those areas already militarily occupied by Russia- and no more.” Friedrich Merz, Chancellor of Germany
“Ukrainian troops must do everything to ensure that the buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine in the direction of the Kharkiv region is on the Russian side. If such a buffer zone is established, then no artillery will reach us.” Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine
“Sleepy Joe Biden spent all of his time, and our Country’s money, GIVING everything to P.T. Barnum (Zelensky!) of Ukraine- Hundreds of Billions of Dollars worth.” Donald Trump, President of the United States
“One could argue that we’re probably seeing not a rupture, but a rift in the transatlantic partnership. That’s why I’ve talked about a rectangle of power, so the global north takes the role of defending the liberal world order, whereas the global west becomes the U.S. that is more transactional.” Alexander Stubb, President of Finland
“The problem is that when you don’t have international rules and norms guiding our behaviour, conflict is always behind the corner. It’s part of human nature, I’m afraid. But we need to contain it through institutions and those institutions are not present enough. When a power vacuum emerges, someone is gonna fill it. And peace mediation can’t be transactional because transactions rarely last. They have to be based on a win-win mentality, not a zero-sum mentality. We’ve seen what happens when you defeat someone: They always come back. So we need to find a new way of dealing with the world. So I would not like to talk about World War III, yet.” Alexander Stubb, President of Finland
“Frankly, I think countries around the world, even those that are out there complaining about this a little bit, should actually be grateful that the United States has a president that’s willing to confront a threat like this.” Marco Rubio, United States Secretary of State
And from a charter member of Sycophants-R-Us, said “He’s doing this to make the whole world safe.” Mark Rutte, Secretary-General of NATO
“It’s only appropriate that people who are the beneficiaries of the strait will help to make sure that nothing bad happens there. If there’s no response or if it’s a negative response I think it will be very bad for the future of NATO.” Donald Trump, President of the United States
“I really am demanding that these countries come in and take their own territory because it really is their own territory. It’s the place from which they get their own energy.” Donald Trump, President of the United States
“We’re not asking them to conduct airstrikes. When we need them to allow us to use their military bases, their answer is no? Then why are we in NATO?” Marco Rubio, United States Secretary of State
“This has nothing to do with NATO. President Trump’s frustration should be directed at specific requests to specific countries.” Giedrimas Jeglinskas, Member of Parliament of Lithuania
“Allies are doing everything the United States is asking.” Mark Rutte, Secretary-General of NATO
“We should abolish the unanimity principle in the EU in foreign and security policy.” Johann Wadephul, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Germany
“The world we live in has turned into a world full of chaos, where the rule of the powerful prevails.” Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of Turkiye
“I think Türkiye was fantastic. Actually, fantastic. And they stayed out of things that we asked them to. And he's [Recep Tayyip Erdogan] a great leader.” Donald Trump, President of the United States
“That was wrong. A threat to Iranian civilians in that way is wrong.” Keir Starmer, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
“When we’re serious, we don’t say the opposite of what we said the day before. We are talking about war, we are talking today about women and men who are in combat, about women, men and civilians who are being killed. We’re also talking about the impact of this war on our economies.” Emmanuel Macron, President of France
Kaja Kallas, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, a Vice President of the Brussels, Belgium-based European Commission (EC),in remarks at the New York, New York-based United Nations (UN) shared both the Russian Federation-Ukraine War and State of Israel-United States-Iran War were examples of violations of international law.
“Without Ukraine and Turkey, Europe [European Union] will not have an army comparable to the Russian one. With Ukraine, Turkey, Norway, and Britain, you will control security at sea- and not just one.” Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine
