Next Up? Moscow Going On A Very Public Shopping Spree- Making A List And Checking It Twice…
For President Zelensky, It’s Stocking With A Lump Of Coal To Be Avoided
The 1934 holiday classic, Santa Claus is Comin’ to Town, includes the lyrics: “He’s making a list, checking it twice; gonna find out who’s naughty or nice. Santa Claus is coming to town… He knows if you’ve been bad or good, so be good for goodness sake.”
The Kremlin in Moscow may be preparing to deliver a Christmas List to The White House in Washington DC.
Not a list of what may be offered, but a list of what is wanted and who might have it and benefit from selling it. Santa may be speaking the Russian language this year.
The repair and then operation of Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, along with use again of pipelines connecting gas exports from the Russian Federation into Ukraine and then through Ukraine into Europe, will not necessarily find willing customers.
The unwillingness of customers and governments to send payments to the Russian Federation is even more distasteful when coupled with the Trump-Vance Administration (2025-2029) desire for the transactions to be conditional upon family, friends, and friends of friends gaining financial benefits from little to no financial exposure. To observers, another grifting operation evolving from the Oval Office.
While Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation (2000-2008 and 2012-2030), remains head or state or is believed to hold meaningful political power within the Russian Federation, there will be substantive reluctance to provide him with the appearance or the reality of having outlived his authorship of and consequences for the Russian Federation-Ukraine War.
The Trump-Vance Administration is wrong to conclude the availability to the global marketplace of products from the Russian Federation is as persuasive as products from the global marketplace to the Russian Federation.
Evidenced by challenges which were anticipated and should have resulted in the idea having been discarded during its diplomatic infancy, the export of diesel fuel from the internationally-recognized territory of the Russian Federation to port facilities in the United States, regardless of pricing, was always troubled. It was a foolish concept.
So too will be exports of products assembled, manufactured, produced, and sourced in the internationally-recognized territory of the Russian Federation and in the non-internationally-recognized territory of the Russian Federation remain unwelcome in the United States and in most of the members of the Brussels Belgium-based European Union (EU) along with other countries.
EU: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.
However, if Kirill Dmitriev, Special Envoy and Chief Executive Officer of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), convinces President Putin to prepare a shopping list of products the government of the Russian Federation wants to purchase and a list of products that Russian Federation-based companies want to purchase, the diesel fuel dynamic could swiftly change.
Why? Because money talks. And, Donald Trump, President of the United States (2017-2021 and 2025-2029), listens to money.
He does not like to import products. He likes to export products. A head of state presenting President Trump with a shopping list is like all-you-can-use notification to a crack addict. He will be your friend.
President Trump’s designated purchasing agents, his elves, are Steven Witkoff, Assistant to the President, Senior Advisor, and Special Envoy (2025- ) of the Trump-Vance Administration, and Jared Kushner, a son-in-law of President Trump. If they conceive of a way to interject their families and friends into the revenue pipeline, they will be advocating elves.
What does Mr. Dmitriev do next? He compiles the list of products and next to each includes the budget (Canadian Dollar, Euro, Pound Sterling, and United States Dollar) for each item and next to that value a list of the companies (and their respective countries of origin) known to be sources of the products. A large Excel file.
What products might be on the list? Aircraft, consumer products, industrial equipment, locomotives, and vehicles.
The key element is that the budget for the purchases is entirely available immediately. Available for immediate transfer. No financing required. No payment terms. Even cash-in-advance terms are acceptable. Not surprisingly, Mr. Dmitriev will request temporary reinstatement of the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) electronic payment system. That should be the only request because Mr. Dmitriev will appreciate that the number of requests directly impacts the level of desire- and negatively so.
Essential that the list of products does not reflect investment. These are transactions only. Visualize an excursion to Walmart, Cosco, or Amazon. Shopping, not investing. Keep it simple.
A second shopping list may also be offered with the same items, same budgets, and same list of companies and countries. The second shopping list would use for payment the US$200+ billion in assets of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation which have been frozen since 2022.
In some respects, the two shopping lists are like a military pincer movement- closing in from two sides.
The publication of both shopping lists will further fracture the cohesiveness of the approximately thirty governments in the Coalition of the Willing and governments outside of the group who support the government of Ukraine. The timing would be particularly advantageous to the government of the Russian Federation given the 2026/2027 election schedule for members of the EU.
Governments are increasingly encountering opposition to defense spending- whether including or excluding funding for the government of Ukraine. Taxpayers and voters want less spending overall and they want more spending for education, healthcare, infrastructure, pensions, and wages.
The surfacing of an early Christmas List from Moscow will confront hostility from Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine (2019-2024; term extended due to imposition of martial law in 2022).
He will argue selling a product to the government of the Russian Federation or to Russian Federation-based companies will prolong the Russian Federation-Ukraine War. He will remind members of the EU that the US$200+ billion is supposed to be earmarked to fund the reconstruction of Ukraine. One problem there already is likely a substantial portion of the monies will have been allocated and used as loan guarantees before the military component of the Russian Federation-Ukraine War concludes. And then where will the reconstruction monies be found? Brussels and Kyiv will look to taxpayers, and those taxpayers will tell them to look elsewhere.
President Zelensky will encounter governments desperate for fees and taxes- and they will need to make uncomfortable choices.
