Potential Real For (Very) Bitter Ukrainian Population. Had Coalitions Embraced Strength, 24 February 2022 Would Be Remembered Only As Ten Days After Valentine’s Day. How Is 2.4 From 62 A Negative?
The Potential Is Real For A (Very) Bitter Ukrainian Population
The Nearer The End Of The War Should Be, The Further From The End It Is
Today’s Problem- Too Many Politicians Want Seats At The Negotiating Table- And Want To Bring Along Their Own Menu. That Means Taking Longer For Everyone To Be Served.
How Does US$2.4 Trillion Subtracted From US$62 Trillion Equal A Negative?
Had Coalitions Embraced Strength, 24 February 2022 Would Be Remembered Only As Ten Days After Valentine’s Day
Is Entering The Fifth Year For Ukraine To Celebrate- Defeat Has Been Thus Far Been Defeated? Or Fifth Year Of Too Many Funerals?
Editor’s Note:
On 24 February 2022, this space was in a room at the Kharkiv Palace Hotel when in the early morning the armed forces of the Russian Federation entered further into the internationally-recognized territory of Ukraine. The phrase “etched in memory” is the proverbial understatement. The Kharkiv Palace Hotel was destroyed.
For five years, this space has traveled uniquely throughout Belarus (Brest, Hormiel, Minsk, Vitebsk, and others), China (Beijing), Russian Federation (Belgorod, Kursk, Moscow, St. Petersburg, and others), Ukraine (Dnipro, Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa, Poltava, Sumy, Vinnytsia, Zaporizhzhia, and others), and Turkiye (Ankara, Hatay, Kayseri, Istanbul, Kahramanmaras, Osmaniye, and others). These laboratories assist with creating analysis as to the impact of the war upon those nearest to it and to extrapolate as to the likely outcomes.
This space also appreciates that it can arrive to and depart from Belarus, Russian Federation, and Ukraine. Others cannot. Some will never depart- because they are dead.
Today
These last days, as for each of the previous three years leading to 24 February is an influx of visitors into Ukraine. Fifth anniversaries are popular. As are ten, twenty, fifty, and one hundred. There will be more visitors this year. They will create selfies to prove they were in Ukraine, reinforcing their “wartime” credentials. They will secretly hope for something to happen- not to them, but something visual where they can use their cellular device to capture the moment and then share on Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, Signal, Telegram, and Twitter (X). Treating Ukraine like an adventure ride at an amusement park.
Many analysts, journalists, presenters, and reporters are leading with “this Tuesday [24 February 2026] marks four years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.”
A more precise representation is in the early morning of 24 February 2026, citizens of Ukraine and members of the armed forces of Ukraine will begin their fifth year engaged in an expanded war with the armed forces of the Russian Federation.
On 24 February 2022, the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded and further invaded the territory of Ukraine in what Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation (2000-2008 and 2012-2030), defined first as a Special Military Operation (SMO) and on 22 December 2022 defined as a war. The initial invasion of Ukraine by the armed forces of the Russian Federation was in part from the territory of Belarus.
The war commenced by the Russian Federation against Ukraine did not commence on 24 February 2022. The roots began their trajectories on 20 February 2014 when the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded the Crimean Peninsula and the area known as the Donbas Region (Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast).
As of 22 February 2026, the armed forces of the Russian Federation control approximately 19.5% of the internationally-recognized territory of Ukraine. 100% of the Crimean Peninsula. Approximately 99% of Luhansk Oblast. Approximately 83% of Donetsk Oblast. Approximately 75% of Kherson Oblast. Approximately 75% of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Very small portions (less than 1%) within Kharkiv Oblast, Mykolaiv Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and Sumy Oblast.
Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine (2019-2024; term extended due to imposition of martial law in 2022), said recently “You can’t say that we’re losing the war. Honestly, we’re definitely not losing it, definitely. The question is whether we will win. That is the question- but it’s a very costly question.”
The last observation, as to cost, is the most important because costs (financial, human, physical) determine the longevity of conflict.
For the government and citizens of Ukraine, the costs since 24 February 2022 have been enormous and obvious- deaths, disabled, orphaned, widowed, wounded; societal- displacement, disruption, population disbursement; structural- damaged and destroyed; and financial- bankrupting commercial, economic, and financial infrastructure.
For those governments- meaning for those taxpayers whose funds appointed and elected political leadership have directed into Ukraine and for the benefit of Ukraine, the cost has been enormous.
Since 24 February 2022, governments (and government-controlled financial institutions) have committed more than US$500 billion.
For perspective, since 24 February 2022, approximately US$320 billion in assets of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation have remained frozen. Most of the assets are held by financial institutions located among the twenty-seven-member country Brussels, Belgium-based European Union (EU), primarily in Belgium.
These assets were to have remained frozen and then used for the reconstruction of Ukraine. As expected, governments have already absorbed nearly all the frozen assets- including repayment provisions.
At some point, citizens of Ukraine will want access to those funds, particularly as compensation for civil and criminal claims against the Russian Federation- its citizens, its companies, its government, and its military. There will likely be no funds available to them. And the government of the Russian Federation is likely to respond with “not our problem” when governments seek additional funds for the reconstruction of Ukraine because “you spent it already and we are not paying twice.”
EU: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.
So, when President Zelensky speaks of costs, members of the EU and thirty-two-member country North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and particularly the Trump-Vance Administration (2025-2029) look at money- what has been delivered, what has been promised, who will repay, and how much more might be required.
For Ukraine and its supporters, by its conclusion, the Russian Federation-Ukraine War could cost US$1 trillion attributed to taxpayers of Ukraine, taxpayers of the EU, taxpayers of NATO, and taxpayers of other countries.
NATO: United States, United Kingdom, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Albania, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia, Romania, Germany, Slovakia, Greece, Slovenia, Hungary, Spain, Turkiye, Latvia, and North Macedonia, Sweden.
For President Zelensky, he believes the EU and NATO have an obligation to continue to fund the government of Ukraine, the armed forces of Ukraine, and support citizens of Ukraine until the government of Ukraine decides to end the war- either as victor, as defeated, or as a draw- cease fire.
President Zelensky and many citizens of Ukraine believe that had the EU and NATO, and particularly The White House, impaired President Putin prior to or as the armed forces of the Russian Federation invaded Georgia (2008), then invaded Ukraine (2014), what happened on 24 February 2022 might have not happened.
Surprising to no observer should be an evolving reality that citizens of Ukraine, and particularly appointed and elected political leadership, will continue to shift from attempting to remain appreciative for the support received- commercial, economic, financial, military, political, and social, to increasing anger, animosity, antagonism, bitterness, and disappointment.
This transition is due to because of the sacrifices citizens of Ukraine believe they have made which were in large measure only because those governments with strength to defend the citizens of Ukraine embraced hesitancy, timidity, and weakness rather using the brute force represented by their combined capacity. Meaning economies and military spending dwarfing that of the Russian Federation.
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the Russian Federation in 2025 was approximately US$2.4 trillion. In 2025, the GDP of the United States was approximately US$30 trillion, and the government of the United States spent nearing US$1 trillion on military-related programs. In 2025, the EU had a combined GDP of approximately US$32 trillion. Normally, these values would be relevant when predicting winners and losers- US$62 trillion against US$2.4 trillion. Yet, entering the fifth year of an expanded war, the Russian Federation remains if not winning, certainly not losing.
And winning and losing lead to ending. How does the Russian Federation-Ukraine War end. Not how peace between the two countries is created, implemented, made operational, and preserved, but rather what are the negotiation pieces which are most important and which are least important and why does political leadership continue to add to the list when the goal should be to subtract from the list?
The Trump-Vance Administration crafted what is now a twenty-point plan for peace.
There will be no peace between the government of the Russian Federation and the government of Ukraine. Peace is a state of mind. It requires forgiving. It requires acceptance- without fingers crossed. That will, if ever, take decades. There is too much death and destruction for President Zelensky and President Putin to stand next to one another while white doves are released into the sky- and done so by Donald Trump, President of the United States (2017-2021, 2025-2029).
Important to note the government of Ukraine continues to maintain 90% of the twenty points have been agreed to- by them and, perhaps, though in no way certain, with The White House. And, the government of the Russian Federation has not shared, publicly, how many- and if any, of the twenty points they are prepared to agree to- in writing.
What is among the remaining 10% to be negotiated? Real estate. Specifically, the approximately 17% of the Donetsk Oblast controlled by the armed forces of Ukraine and which the armed forces of the Russian Federation continue to want- as does President Putin.
Since the entirety of the thesis for the government of the Russian Federation to seek control of the internationally-recognized territory of Ukraine depends upon absorbing real estate, then most of the other issues are not important today. They are important, but not consequential to craft an end to the military operations. Many citizens of Ukraine will forever hate everything Russian- and no rational person could take issue with that prospect. There are citizens of the Russian Federation who likewise will forever hate everything Ukrainian. If they lost family and friends because of the SMO, who could blame them for their feelings.
The government of the Russian Federation has been public with the position that they want to control all the Donetsk Oblast. From their perspective, a perfectly acceptable military and political goal. The problem is the armed forces of Ukraine hold approximately 17% of the Donetsk Oblast and they want to keep it. From their perspective, a perfectly acceptable military and political goal- particularly given the real estate belongs to them.
An impasse?
And then there is Kaja Kallas, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, a Vice President of the Brussels, Belgium-based European Commission (EC), who continues to demonstrate a profound ability- again and again, to misstate (the language of Article 5 of the NATO Charter) and confound (adding to lists when the goal is to subject from lists).
The High Representative’s most recent exercise from what could be the title a book, “How Not To Negotiate” involves her list of what the EU will require of the government of the Russian Federation prior to the EU signing-off on any cessation of military operations, co-existence agreement, or peace treaty executed by President Zelensky and President Putin.
The High Representative’s thesis is this: From 24 February 2022 through 12:00 pm on 20 January 2025, the EC/EU did not want to engage directly with the government of the Russian Federation. Enter from the ideological Stage Right is President Trump. The EC/EU then demands to be heard after completion of the first year of the Trump-Vance Administration- and after efforts by President Trump to end the military component of the Russian Federation-Ukraine War. NOTE: President Trump was for a cease-fire before he was against it.
After the conclusion of the first year of the Trump-Vance Administration, the EC on behalf of the EU demands a “seat at the table” which thus far has three- President Putin, President Trump, and President Zelensky. Expecting an invitation to a meal to which they were not invited. And the EC/EU not only wants to join, but wants to arrive with new menus- including political appetizers, political main courses, and political deserts.
Remember the twenty-point peace plan of which 90% of the points have been agreed to by the government of Ukraine and, presumably, by The White House, but not presumably by the Kremlin?
Now, the High Representative wants to add another ten or so points, almost all of which are not going to happen. The additions are unhelpful and unwanted.
The additions by the High Representative do accomplish the opposite of what members of the EU, NATO, and other governments supporting the government of Ukraine and citizens of Ukraine have as a publicly-stated unified objective: an end to the military operations by the armed forces of the Russian Federation and the armed forces of Ukraine.
By adding additional points to the list of points to be accepted by the government of the Russian Federation, there is only one outcome- more time required for debate, deliberation, discussion, modification, and negotiation. And what happens while the clock continues to tick? More people die, more people are injured, and more property is damaged and destroyed.
But, the High Representative has company in the creating delays. President Zelensky spent considerable time asking and then demanding membership or a promise of membership in NATO- which he knew was never to happen. He then tacked to demanding security guarantees that would mirror Article 5 of the NATO Charter- but that would not reflect what he wanted because Article 5 of the NATO charter does not require a member to defend militarily another member- read the text). Then, the most recent focus is demanding an accelerated EU membership process- that would be completed by 2027 with the government of Ukraine becoming a member of the EU. This too was never going to happen- and President Zelensky knew it.
With these theatrical distractions, the government of Ukraine has wasted time. The government of the Russian Federation is accepting of the debate amongst those who want to negotiate with the Kremlin- they have no intention of interrupting the diplomatic circus.
President Zelensky is correct in believing had the Bush-Cheney Administration (2001-2009) and Obama-Biden Administration (2009-2017) led a “coalition of the prepared and willing to do something now” comprising the EU, NATO and other countries, then 24 February 2022 may only be remembered today as ten days after Valentine’s Day.
The Biden-Harris Administration (2021-2025) did deliver for the government of Ukraine and citizens of Ukraine. And it led efforts for other governments to provide support. However, The White House feared what many outside of Washington DC believed to be rhetoric for imaginary escalation from the government of the Russian Federation.
Had the EU and NATO believed protecting rights of a non-member were in a way more important to the validity of their respective coalitions than was protecting one of their own, where everyone is today may not have been where everyone is today.
Countries within the EU and NATO coalition, the members, were shielded.
Thus, the question. Is it not the responsibility of the strong to protect the weak? And if a coalition is about projecting strength, then that strength is illusory because the coalition never wants to be tested- so it defaults to safety and ultimately projects weakness.
Yet there is this fact- at least a fact to date: No government of the Russian Federation has invaded a member of the EU or a member of NATO.
Perhaps, that is a Russian equivalent of the Maginot Line? Until it is not. Or Cassandra Crossing? Stopping, in part, just in time.
Critical to remember: President Putin and his negotiating team have read and reread the text of Article 5 of the NATO Charter.
The nearer the journey toward concluding the military component of the Russian Federation-Ukraine War should be, the further away it is.
The EC/EU does have a point that given it is providing the funding to Ukraine for its economy to function, for its government to function, and for its military to function, then the EC/EU should have a place setting.
However, given there is not a unified position about Ukraine among members of the EC/EU, how can a representative of the EC/EU commit its members to a unified position? By political definition, a unified position by many generally reflects more the position of the most rigid (the holdout) rather than what the majority truly want.
And lastly, there is John Healy, Minister of Defense for the United Kingdom, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland (2024- ), who recently shared to stressed United Kingdom taxpayers that “We need to dig deeper into our pockets [to support Ukraine]” and has added since that he wants to give the order to deploy into Ukraine members of the armed forces of the United Kingdom “because this will mean that this war is finally over.” Presumably he means into the internationally-recognized territory of Ukraine which will require defining “recognized” in a manner acceptable to the government of Ukraine.
For many in Ukraine, deploying those troops before 24 February 2022 would have had the same result- but to prevent a war.
Pretty courageous of Minister Healy to volunteer to lead troops onto the field of battle- after its finished, but probably in time for the parade.
